Reading: Wind speed analysis and energy calculation based on mixture distributions in Narakkalliya, S...

Download

A- A+
dyslexia friendly

Research Articles

Wind speed analysis and energy calculation based on mixture distributions in Narakkalliya, Sri Lanka

Authors:

KWGDH Rajapaksha,

LK
About KWGDH
Postgraduate Institute of Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya.
X close

Kanthi Perera

LK
About Kanthi

Department of Engineering Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya.

X close

Abstract

Wind is an important resource for generating renewable energy. To effectively estimate wind energy potential, Weibull, lognormal and gamma distribution functions have been widely used. However, when the distribution is bi-modal these conventional distribution functions are not suitable. Since Narakkalliya is affected by both monsoon seasons to varying degrees, the wind speed data show a bi-modal behaviour. A study was conducted at Narakkalliya in 2001 to calculate the energy generated from wind using the conventional Weibull distribution. The objective of this study was to show that energy calculation could be carried out more accurately using mixture distribution. Thus in this study, mixture Weibull distributions, mixture lognormal and Weibull distribution, mixture gamma and Weibull distribution were considered to model the wind speed frequency distribution (WSFD). Parameters of the above mentioned distributions were calculated using maximum likelihood method. The goodness-of-fit of the distributions was compared using K-S error, Chi-square test and root mean square error. Mixture Weibull distribution had the lowest error followed by the mixture lognormal and Weibull distribution. The fitted mixture Weibull distribution and the power curve data for the Narakkalliya wind turbine were used for energy calculation. According to the analysis mixture Weibull estimates 83.2 % of the actual energy while Weibull estimates 75.9 % of the actual. 

How to Cite: Rajapaksha, K. & Perera, K., (2016). Wind speed analysis and energy calculation based on mixture distributions in Narakkalliya, Sri Lanka. Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka. 44(4), pp.409–416. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4038/jnsfsr.v44i4.8023
Published on 27 Dec 2016.
Peer Reviewed

Downloads

  • PDF (EN)

    comments powered by Disqus