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Analysis and mathematical modelling of possible inter-larval spread of the dengue virus

Author:

K Tennakone

LK
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24, Tapodarama Road, Hantana, Kandy.
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Abstract

The dengue virus continues its pathogenicity by horizontal transfer between humans and mosquitoes or vertical transfer through all metamorphic stages of infected female mosquitoes. A recent experiment has concluded the possibility of yet another mode of transmission, where the infected larvae in an aqueous habitat pass the virus to healthy ones. Although this mode of dengue virus transmission is not known to happen in nature, the virus adopting it as a survival strategy implicates a potential threat of more severe epidemics. A theoretical model constructed to study the spread of the virus suggests that when the larval population density exceeds a critical value the disease may quickly grow to epidemic proportions. The model also indicates that vertical transmission in the absence of human involvement is most unlikely to sustain the virus. Whereas in a densely larvae populated environment, inter-larval transmission could explosively generate infected mosquitoes without human mediation. The absolute necessity of eliminating mosquito breeding wet habitats and long term planning to avoid their creation is emphasized in light of this potential future threat. As evolution explores all the advantages and dengue virus evolves fast adaptively, virus resorting to inter-larval transmission should not be considered as an improbability.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4038/jnsfsr.v42i3.7401

J.Natn.Sci.Foundation Sri Lanka 2014 42 (3): 273-277
How to Cite: Tennakone, K., 2014. Analysis and mathematical modelling of possible inter-larval spread of the dengue virus. Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka, 42(3), pp.273–277. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4038/jnsfsr.v42i3.7401
Published on 10 Sep 2014.
Peer Reviewed

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